Predictive Analysis of Cosmetic Formulations: A Multi-Vector INCI Mapping Methodology for Objective Product Assessment

Abstract

 EU regulation requires that cosmetic products be safe and that claims not mislead consumers. It does not require that claims be compositionally grounded. A product marketed as "barrier-restoring" need not contain barrier lipids at any particular concentration. Practitioners who want to check whether formulation composition supports a declared function have no standardised procedure for doing so from the label alone. To develop a structured, label-based methodology - the Multi-Vector Functional Mapping (MVFM) - for analysing cosmetic formulations from their INCI composition without laboratory data or proprietary tools. The MVFM locates the first regulated preservative or fragrance marker in the INCI list and uses its position as a segmentation boundary. Ingredients above that boundary are scored on three functional vectors - Hydration (H), Lipid (L), Structural (S) - on a 0–3 scale. Three commercial products with different declared functions were used as a test case. Segmentation worked without ambiguity in all three products. Products A and C returned vector profiles consistent with their label claims. Product B - marketed as anti-aging - scored H=4, L=7, S=6: a lipid-dominant profile more consistent with a texture-focused cream than with a bioactive-driven anti-aging formula. Two fragrance allergens regulated under Commission Regulation (EU) 2023/1545 were identified in the functional zone of Product B. The MVFM converts the INCI list into a reproducible functional profile. Three products tested by one evaluator show it functions as designed. Larger-scale validation and inter-rater reliability testing remain to be done.